Includes ACE, CO$TAT, and POST Tools

COURSE LENGTH: 2 Days (8:30am - 4:30pm)

PREREQUISITES: Students must have attended the ACEIT 101 training course. We strongly recommend that students have developed at least one estimate in ACE.

OBJECTIVE: This is an introductory course providing a basis for a cost risk evaluation using the ACEIT software by guiding you through the process of modeling the uncertainty in your point estimate. It is designed for analysts who need clarification on the basic concepts of uncertainty analysis and guidance on how to systematically apply uncertainty to their estimates. You will explore the nature of uncertainty in an estimate, learn about the most common uncertainty distributions, and receive guidance on choosing the most appropriate distribution.

At the completion of the course you will be able to:

•        Identify where and how uncertainty should be applied in your point estimate

•        Recognize the standard uncertainty distributions and know where to apply them

•        Apply an uncertainty distribution to CERs and their inputs

•        Understand when/where/how to apply correlation

•        Understand how to apply Discrete Risk

•        Fit a Distribution to a dataset using Distribution Finder

•        Understand the concept of Joint Cost/Schedule Uncertainty

•        Understand the requirement for and process used to allocate risk results in the estimate

•        Develop a risk-adjusted, time phased estimate in BY and TY$

•        Generate key risk charts and reports in ACE

TRAINING MODULES: The course is broken into six sections. The following are the modules in this RI$K 102 training course:

Why Cost Uncertainty?

•        Module 1 – Introduction to Uncertainty

•        Module 2 – Sources of Uncertainty

Background

•        Module 3 – What is a Distribution?

•        Module 4 – Understanding Simulation

•        Module 5 – Introduction to Common Distributions

Defining Distributions

•        Module 6 – Defining Distributions Subjectively

•        Module 7 – Defining Distributions Objectively

•        Module 8 – Distribution Skew

•        Module 9 – Defining Distributions for CERs

Inputs-Based Uncertainty Approach

•        Module 10 – Cost Throughputs

•        Module 11 – Introduction to Correlation

·         Module 12 – CERs and CER Inputs

·         Module 13 – Applying Correlation

Additional Topics

·         Module 14 – Discrete Risk

·         Module 15 – CO$TAT Distribution Finder

·         Module 16 – Schedule Uncertainty

Uncertainty Results

·         Module 17 – Risk Allocation and ACE Risk Phasing Profiles

·         Module 18 – Presenting the Risk Story