Title:
ACEIT 7.2 New Features Revealed
Author:
Sabrina Beane and Gina Fennell, Tecolote Research, Inc.
Dynamic presentation highlighting ACEIT 7.2 new features. This
presentation will demonstrate several enhancements including:
Window and work screens tabs, enhanced Inputs/Results Viewer,
additional ACE functions, new ways to time-phase RI$K dollars,
augmented Narrative report options, and new POST reports. The
presentation will also highlight many new usability features
such as: send to e-mail, find and replace, dynamic summing,
choice lists, and many more.
Author:
Jermaine Garland and Mike O'Sullivan, Tecolote Research, Inc.
The often overlooked aspect of a high-quality cost
estimate is the documentation.
The documentation adds the validity and repeatability to
the estimate through proper sourcing of inputs and the
identification of methodologies, respectively.
This presentation takes a look into the
documentation/reporting features of ACEIT and applies them to
the documentation requirements listed in the GAO Cost Estimating
and Assessment Guide. As a best practice, cost estimate
documentation should address how the estimate satisfies the
12-step cost estimating process and corresponding best practices
identified in GAO guide for creating high-quality cost
estimates.
Title: Innovation in
Cost Estimating: the Joint Integrated Analysis Tool (JIAT)
Author: Dan Schwartz, ODASACE and
Melissa Cyrulik, Tecolote Research, Inc.
This presentation will discuss the innovative cost estimating
capabilities of the Joint Integrated Analysis Tool (JIAT)
to the 2010 ACEIT User Workshop attendees.
Concept:
The JIAT concept is a web-based architecture that allows
seamless linkages between cost estimating, engineering design,
requirements, capability, and performance analysis
methodologies, tools and databases. JIAT includes database
modules and provides ready access to cost and technical data.
JIAT integrates all of ODASA-CE databases, AMCOS, OSMIS
and FORCES, along with the potential for integrating other
Services’ cost estimating models and Operations and Support
databases. JIAT is
changing the way the acquisition-analysis community does
business by bringing system acquisition, war-fighting
requirements and cost analysis perspectives together to create
an effective decision support tool.
Operational Use:
The JIAT system allows end-users to run a wide variety of cost models from
their desktop. Cost models are made available to end-users
through a distributed system of JIAT Model Providers hosted as
web services across the Internet. Each Provider has a collection
of available models. The user can search for models across all
Providers. Once the desired model is found, the user can run
that model to produce results to include in a cost estimate.
Author: Jennifer Kirchhoffer, Tecolote
Research, Inc.
Once you have completed your estimate, how do you convince
everyone that your estimate is correct?
Do you approach your presentations as a technician or as
a salesman? This
presentation will focus on strategies to help you shift into
salesman mode and use the powers of persuasion in preparing and
delivering your presentation.
It will demonstrate key POST reports and how they can be
used to sell your estimate.
Title: Dynamic Quantity Schedules – Effectively Linking Data
Author:
Joseph M. Golebieski, Army CECOM LCMC
Dynamically linking quantity schedules enables the analyst to
make a change in one place rather than in multiple places. For
instance, within an Army system life cycle cost estimate, costs
are based on a variety of quantity schedules, such as the
Procurement (Buy) schedule, the Fielding (Delivery) schedule,
the Sustainment schedule, the Reprocurement schedule, and the
Software Maintenance/Upgrade schedule. Why have five independent
quantity schedules, each with their own set of entered data,
when they’re all interrelated? This presentation will describe a
methodology using various ACE functions for dynamically linking
a given Procurement (Buy) quantity schedule in order to generate
the Fielding (Delivery) schedule, the Sustainment schedule, the
Reprocurement schedule, and the Software Maintenance/Upgrade
schedule, as described below:
·
Fielding (Delivery) quantity schedule - related to the
Procurement (Buy) quantity schedule. In most cases, the Fielding
(Delivery) quantity schedule is just the Procurement (Buy)
quantity schedule shifted out one year (lag). Using the ACE
function FYCVal(), a
methodology will be shown on how to generate the Fielding
(Delivery) quantity schedule.
·
Sustainment quantity schedule - related to the Fielding
(Delivery) quantity schedule. The Sustainment quantity schedule
is just the sum of the fielded quantities throughout the system
life, with a ramp-up, steady state, ramp-down structure. Using
the ACE function
OpFieldedUnits(), a methodology will be shown on how to
generate the Sustainment quantity schedule with a ramp-up,
steady state, ramp-down structure.
·
Reprocurement quantity schedule - also related to the Fielding
(Delivery) quantity schedule. The Reprocurement quantity
schedule is repeating the Fielding (Delivery) quantity schedule
every “x” years. Using the ACE function
FYRepeat(), a methodology will be shown on how to generate the
Reprocurement quantity schedule.
·
Software Maintenance/Upgrade quantity schedule - related to the
Sustainment quantity schedule. The Software Maintenance/Upgrade
quantity schedule is the sustainment quantity, in a particular
year, associated with a cyclical schedule. Using the ACE
function OpCycle(), a
methodology will be shown on how to generate the Software
Maintenance/Upgrade quantity schedule.
Author:
Melissa Teicher, MCR, LLC
Estimate
Documentation could be considered one of the most important
parts of an estimate, and it could also be considered one of the
most forgotten parts of an estimate.
Too often, estimate documentation is overlooked, and when
it comes time to use the documentation to defend an estimate or
for someone to be able to replicate or update your estimate, the
documentation simply isn't there.
This presentation will illustrate many ways to properly
and easily document your estimates.
Author: Pete Coleman, Complete
Logistics
Australia is large country with a small population.
To protect itself, the Australian DoD endeavours to
purchase weapon systems and components that provide Australia
with leading edge technologies to provide a force multiplier to
the limited personnel resources available to the Australian DoD.
Australia operates on a multi-discipline approach because
of these personnel limitations which results in most personnel
being trained in 2 or more disciplines.
Life Cycle Costing (LCC) was not accepted as a project
discipline until the early 1990s.
Australia has only a hand full of dedicated LCC
specialists who utilise ACEIT to conduct LCC analysis, therefore
the skill sets available to conduct LCC in projects is
insufficient
to cover all project activities.
In numerous cases, projects have had to utilise untrained
personnel to conduct LCC analysis utilising Microsoft Excel™.
To address this deficiency, Mr. Peter Stanley of the Australian
DoD has embarked on a process to develop an ACEIT template model
to simplify and standardise ACEIT use in the Australian DoD
project environment.
This template model will allow project personnel with low
experience levels in both LCC and ACEIT to utilise this model as
a repository for data and to do limited analysis.
The template model also mimics the Australian DoDs Cost
Analysis Branch (CAB) Microsoft Excel™ work sheets which will
allow for seamless transfer of data between ACEIT models and CAB
worksheets. This
approach also provides for standard reports to be produced and
the normalisation of exchange rates and inflation indices (which
occur 3 times per year).
This presentation will look at the background,
development process and issues, the operation of the model and
planned implementation.
Author:
John D. Bryant, ODASACE
This paper describes a process for developing tailored summary
estimating sections in ACE for use there and in POST and
Powerpoint. Starting
from a completed ACE estimate the demonstration shows how the
summary sections can be devloped using the SumIf function and
the new Cat() function.
The demonstration finishes with the process of adding the
tailored summary section information to a different completed
ACE estimate.
Author:
Wanda S. Thomas, AMCOM
Joint service cost estimating is an area that most cost analysts
don’t have a lot of experience in.
Typically the programs we work are single service and
therefore are estimated according to the particular service cost
estimating structure.
Joint programs require estimation to fulfill the
individual service estimating requirements.
Deciphering how to effectively create an ACEIT cost
estimate for a joint program can be a challenge.
This presentation discusses the development of the Joint Cargo
Aircraft (JCA) estimate which is a joint ACAT ID program between
the Army and Air Force.
We wanted to create an ACEIT cost estimate that was user
friendly in the typical format for each service.
The Army being the lead service, the joint estimate
followed the Army Aircraft cost estimating structure. We
researched each service cost estimating structures and created
two unique estimates that roll up into one joint estimate.
We standardized as much as possible, but maintained the
service formats. We
created individual service only reports.
This provided both the Army and Air Force cost analysts a
cost estimate in their own service formats and unique service
methodologies based on historical data. Being a joint program,
Army and Air Force cost analysts created the cost estimate.
It was reviewed by Deputy Assistant Secretary of the
Army, Cost and Economics (DASA-CE), Air Force Cost Analysis
Agency (AFCAA) and Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) Cost
Analysis Improvement Group (CAIG).
Creating a joint cost estimate and maintaining the unique
service estimating formats and methodologies was a challenge in
the early stages.
Taking the time to create a robust, user friendly ACEIT cost
estimate was very beneficial and a useful tool throughout the
program phases.
DASA-CE complimented JCA as one of the best estimates
they had seen in a Cost Review Board.
Author:
William Lane, Tecolote Research, Inc.
Cost risk analysis continues to be an area of utmost importance
in the cost community. Cost estimate results typically need to
be presented to a diverse audience – including other cost
analysts, financial analysts, CFOs, and program managers. The
ACEIT Software suite offers a variety of tools which analysts
can use to perform cost risk analysis, generate results, and
communicate those results.
This paper first explores building useful summary reports
in the Automated Cost Estimator (ACE). These summary reports, in
conjunction with the functionality of the Program Office Support
Tool (POST), allow for a wide array of reporting mechanisms
which can be used to communicate the risk analysis approaches
and results for any cost estimate. Varying levels of technical
detail can be provided via these reports, depending on the
intended audience.
Author:
Chris Gardiner, Tecolote Research, Inc.
ACEIT
includes many features and capabilities that once discovered
begin to reveal the real power of ACEIT to the user.
One such feature is the Dynamic Equation Columns (DECs).
The discovery of DECs opens new frontiers to the estimator;
enhances creativity, increases model efficiency, decreases model
length and makes navigation easier, and decreases errors. This
presentation will show an actual estimate example that is well
suited for multiple uses of DECs.
It will show the repetitious work and problems involved
in building a model in the “pre-DEC discovery” period. Then the
presentation will take an iterative look at the model evolution
as DECs are discovered and additional DEC opportunities and
applications are realized and implemented.
Title: Uncertainty and Inflation
Author:
Ken Littlefield, Lockheed Martin
The
Department of Defense is required by law and regulation to
produce Life Cycle Cost Estimates for its MDAPs.
LCCEs form the basis for submitting budget requests,
obtaining budget authority and resources required to execute
DoD's acquisition strategy.
Standard practice is for estimates to be developed in
Base Year dollars, and then inflated to Then Year dollars using
standard inflation indices.
This paper will demonstrate the insufficiency of this
accepted practice. A
case study is presented that shows that if this method had been
used to estimate the cost of a project as simple as buying
gasoline on the open market, the Then Year dollar estimate would
not have resulted in enough resources to complete the project.
The author will suggest an alternative methodology using
Monte Carlo simulation that will result in greater probability
of success. However,
the author will demonstrate the potential for waste of resources
given funding to higher confidence levels.
The author will then demonstrate the real value in
Uncertainty Analysis.
In acknowledging Uncertainty, we are then led into the
world of studying variation in the Input Variables of our cost
models, leading to better methods to control them, life cycle
costs and acquisition outcomes.
Author:
Mike Allen, Tecolote Research, Inc.
Risk analysis provides insight into the potential cost range
of the final total cost. What if an analyst could view how risk
ranges change over the years and see how the budget tracks with
the potential scope?
ACEIT 7.2 introduces a new POST report which provides this view.
The Fan Chart shows annual risk bounds in a variety of
ways. This presentation will provide insight into how to use
this new feature.
Author:
John A Sandberg, Tecolote Research, Inc.
ACE offers a powerful
capability called User Defined Functions (UDF).
As the name implies, the analyst can write custom
functions and use them throughout the ACE session.
The UDF helps encapsulate and centralize complex
behavior, helping prepare for change in an evolving model.
Unfortunately, most feel that UDF is a measure of last
resort--something to fear and loath.
However, the danger is not with using UDFs but with
avoiding them until it is too late.
"A stitch in time saves nine."
Words of wisdom when it comes to UDFs.
This presentation attempts to demystify the UDF with
examples demonstrating UDF behavior and introducing design
principles taken from computer science books for recognizing
when, where, and how a UDF is beneficial.
The presentation continues with testing and debugging
strategies involving UDFs.
By the end of the presentation, the analyst will be more
comfortable with the notion of exploiting UDFs early in model
development to help isolate repetition and complexity--the two
nemeses of the flexible, scalable model.
Author:
James Johnson, Tecolote Research, Inc.
This
presentation will discuss the ongoing work toward completing a
Joint Confidence Level of cost and schedule uncertainty with
emphasis on annual phasing, and the impact of annual resource
availability on a JCL. The author(s) will show how a schedule
network with uncertainty can be replicated in ACEIT, and how the
cost estimate with uncertainty can be linked with the schedule.
The presentation will illustrate how the schedule and
uncertainty can impact both the total cost and the cost phasing
of the cost estimate. The presentation will also demonstrate how
the new reports in ACEIT 7.2 can be used to visualize the JCL
annual results.
Author:
Vickie Gutierrez, NASA and Troy Miller, Tecolote Research, Inc.
Use of Cost Improvement (Learning) Curves are well understood
in the cost estimating world. However, NASA's Altair Project has
a situation that requires a unique approach to learning. Two
different Lander configurations will fly to the moon. They are
different enough that they won't likely share the same learning
curve, but are expected to experience cost improvement. This
paper will address a technique used to develop a model that is
sensitive to both flight rate and cost improvement.
Author:
Darren Elliott, Tecolote
Research, Inc.
This presentation will discuss and demonstrate how to handle
sunk costs (actuals) in ACEIT estimates.
The author will demonstrate the various methods for
adding sunk costs to estimates and discuss the benefits of each.
The presentation will include screenshots from ACEIT and
example sessions to demonstrate each implementation method. The
author will also investigate alternatives for implementation,
outside of the standard implementation methods.
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