Includes ACE, CO$TAT, and POST Tools

COURSE LENGTH: 2 Days (8:30am - 4:30pm)

PREREQUISITES: Students must have attended the ACEIT 101 training course. We strongly recommend that students have developed at least one estimate in ACE.

OBJECTIVE: This is an introductory course to guide you through the process to model the uncertainty in your point estimate to provide a basis for a cost risk evaluation of the estimate using the ACEIT software. It is designed for analysts who need clarification on the basic concepts of uncertainty analysis and guidance on how to systematically apply uncertainty to their estimates. You will explore the natures of uncertainty in an estimate and how to model them. The most common uncertainty distributions are introduced and guidance on which one to select is provided.

At the completion of the course you will be able to:

•Identify where and how uncertainty should be applied in your point estimate
•Recognize the standard uncertainty distributions and know where to apply them
•Apply an uncertainty distribution to CERs and their inputs
•Understand when/where/how to apply correlation
•Generate key risk tables, charts and reports in ACE
•Understand the requirement for and process used to allocate risk results in the estimate
•Develop a risk-adjusted, time phased estimate in BY and TY$
•Develop graphical displays of risk simulation results

TRAINING MODULES: The course is broken into six sections. The following are the modules in this Risk 101 training course:

Why Cost Risk?
•Module 1 – Introduction to Uncertainty and Risk
•Module 2 – Sources of Uncertainty
Background
•Module 3 – What is a Distribution?
•Module 4 – Understanding Simulation
•Module 5 – A Process for Defining Uncertainty
Data Needed to Define Distributions
•Module 6 – Defining Distributions with No Information on the Bounds
•Module 7 – Defining Distributions with Expert Opinion
•Module 8 – Defining Distributions for CERs with Supporting Data
•Module 9 – Adjusting Risk To Account For CER Database or Analogy Relevance
Inputs-Based Uncertainty Approach
•Module 10 – Inputs-Based Uncertainty Approach for Cost Throughputs
•Module 11 – Inputs-Based Uncertainty Approach for CERs and CER Inputs
Presenting Risk Results
•Module 12 – Presenting the Risk Story
Advanced Risk Topics
•Module 13 – Advanced Risk Topics Overview