The ACEIT Team presented three papers at this year's ISPA/SCEA Conference in New Orleans, LA. The paper presented by John Sandberg was the winner of the "Best Paper" on the Risk Track. Below are abstracts for each presentation. To view the complete presentations, click on the linked titles.

 Cost Risk Allocation Objectives, Tendencies, and Limitations – John Sandberg

This paper examines general tendencies, trade-offs, and objectives of cost risk allocation heuristic alternatives with focus on the quantification and verification of the allocated results. Some important limitations of existing heuristics are discussed, followed by recommendations on how to capture these in future allocation methods. The presentation equips the cost analyst to better understand, produce, and defend cost risk allocated reports.

 Examination of Functional Correlation and Its Impact on Risk Analysis - Alfred Smith

This paper describes the difference between functional and applied correlation, identifies how functional correlation is introduced into a model, describes how to measure it and demonstrates, in quantitative terms, the impacts of functional versus applied correlation on the uncertainty analysis.

 Why ZMPE When You Can MUPE? - Dr. Shu-Ping Hu and Alfred Smith

This paper examines the properties, pros and cons of the MUPE and ZMPE regression methods used to develop CERss. It further evaluates whether the estimated multiplicative CERs derived from these methods are actually unbiased. Since the derived CERs and the corresponding prediction intervals are used to quantify the cost estimating risk, using a validated and supportable method is essential to cost uncertainty analysis. The conclusions identified in this paper form the basis for the decision to use the MUPE regression technique to develop the USCM9 CERs.